Blackout in Hokkaido(2)

Posted on by ERT

About Blackout in Hokkaido, many experts and media refer to the cause.

Unfortunately, many are not necessarily accurate. In this HP, We informed that the frequency drop due to the emergency stop of the Tomato-Atsuma Power plants was so rapid and blackout was inevitable.

After that, new facts are being revealed.

According to Hokkaido Electric Power, the demand for every 5 minutes since 3 am on September 6 was as follows.
3: 00 – 3: 05 2.92GW
3: 05 – 3: 10 2.79GW
3: 10 – 3: 15 1.88GW
3: 15 – 3: 20 1.93GW
3: 2o – 3: 25 1.18GW
3: 25 – 3: 30 1.43GW
3: 30 – 3: 35 0.36GW

Looking at this, it is clear that just after the earthquake occurred, the whole  blackout did not occur, and that the supply was partially continued for about 20 to 25 minutes. According to some reports, there are citizen comments that electricity was provided for about 20 minutes after the earthquake, and it is consistent with the facts above.

The reason why this happened, Hokkaido Electric Power is expected to announce details, but here,let us guess.

First of all, it is thought that three plants of the Tomato-Atsuma (total 1.65 million kW)  did not stop immediately after the earthquake, for example, one machine has a high possibility of being held. It may have been possible to continue some supplies by limiting demand through UFR operation unless it is a simultaneous stop of the three plants.

Second, the Kitahon interconnect power line(between Hokkaido & Honshu,or mainland) may have started 600,000 kW supply (Honshu → Hokkaido) almost at the same time as the earthquake occurred. Depending on the area where the load was blocked immediately after the earthquake, if the supply was continued to the west area of ​​Hokkaido, the Kitahon intersection power line may have fulfilled its function.

Third, the Tomato-Atsuma power is considered to have stopped all three plants in 20 minutes to 25 minutes after the earthquake occurred. This means that the frequency has declined and it has come to the whole blackout.

The above is a bold estimate, but we think there is a certain probability. From the viewpoint of figures above, it is probable that three of the Tomato-Atsuma plants did not stopped simultaneously. Hokkaido Electric Power’s analysis will be awaited as to whether UFR opening / closing operation was appropriate in a series of processes, and consequently whether whole blackout could not be avoided.

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