For a long time, to exploit nuclear power plants has been at the very center of Japan’s energy policy. Government has introduced such political system that guaranteed economic interest for power utilities which constructed nuclear power plants on its behalf.
Our concern is why and how such system has changed.
First, liberalization of electric power market was a big impact. Liberalism which was an ideological current in Britain and US in 1980’s has spread in Japan. In Japan’s energy market, after mid 90’s, liberalism has spread slowly but steadily. Specially important was full-market liberalization including residential demand accompanied by the repeal of rate regulation in 2016. As well known, nuclear power plants need huge investment. To repeal such rate regulation that guarantees the collection of so big investment afterwards means the abolition of assurance for their nuclear business endorsed by government.
In liberalized market, as a matter of fact, rate level has collapsed already, therefore, power utilities have lost their traditional tendency to collect their huge investment for a long time. Nuclear power plants which originally need long-time collection of investment, is ill-suited to liberalization.
Second, caused by Fukushima-Daiichi plant disaster, significant policy change has done in nuclear. After Great East Japan Earthquake, safety regulation has been (and will be) strengthened in succession. As for nuclear disaster, unlimited liability without fault is firmly settled by Cabinet Office. Afterwards, power utilities not only need huge amount of investment, but hold unaffordable risk they can never bear.
Furthermore, 40(60)-years regulation upon nuclear operations, as well as judicial risk significantly limit plant operation. Furthermore again, necessity of safety agreement with surrounding local municipalities is spreading. Nuclear power plants seem to be non-working assets that only generate facility-related expenses, not electricity.
Third, these environmental changes invite opportunities in which we recognize the serious problems that conventional policies have held for a long time. Not yet even determined final landfill site for high-level radio-active waste, numerously repeated delay of reprocessing plant operation, significant influence upon surplus plutonium problem caused by decommission of fast breeder reactor, or Monju, each of them is a difficult problem to find even clue to answer.
On the one hand, we put nuclear power construction at the center of national energy policy, on the other, power utilities have promoted them, under the environment in which profit made by nuclear is guaranteed both politically and economically.
Such conventional nuclear regime has collapsed.
Power utilities have lost incentive to construct nuclear power plants. We have to deeply realize that we ourselves made such an environment by political philosophy which values liberalism as well as by nuclear regulation after Great East Japan Earthquake.
How much nuclear power will account for in desirable energy portfolio planned by government in 2050 is no longer significant. From economic point of view, power utilities will never construct nuclear power plant, that’s significant. We can never expect nuclear powered future.